It goes without saying that the World Championship is the biggest tournament of the snooker calendar for all the players, but for those further down the rankings there is even more at stake than a shot at winning that famous old trophy…
As those of you who follow the snooker circuit will know, of the 96 members of the professional circuit this season, only 72 will survive as of right and remain on the tour for the 2009/10 season. With double ranking points being available for the season-ending tournament therefore, it is absolutely crucial for those down the bottom to have a good run and to win as many rounds as possible, even if they fall short of appearing at the Crucible Theatre this April.
In this post I hope to be clarify the situation as it stands and just give my opinion on just who has the best chance of surviving, and who looks to have it all to do.
All you need to know
The very latest provisional rankings can be found here at Global Snooker, taking into account minimum points earned at both the China Open and the World Championship. Similarly, the one-year list can be found here.
To see the ranking points schedule and work out just how many points are available for reaching each round, click here.
To view the draw for the World Championship, please click here.
To stay on the main tour, the players must either finish in the top 64 on the two-year list, or in the top eight of those not in that 64, on the one-year list. For more details please view my previous post here.
To view the order of play and schedule for the World Championship qualifiers, please click here.
The Top 64 – who is safe?
It is hard to say with certainty where the cut-off point is with regard to who looks to be definitely sure of finishing in the top 64 because so many things could happen. I will however stick my neck out and have a go anyway!
Barring something strange happening I would suggest that certainly those down to Jimmy White in 56th position will be safe, particularly as in Jimmy’s case he is playing well and has every chance of winning a few matches in Shefffield. Below that are Paul Davies and David Roe who also look to be safe enough, though around 500 points behind White, they are slightly more vulnerable to being caught by chasers.
Behind those two however, I suspect that David Morris, Liu Song, David Gray, Ian Preece, Rod Lawler and Jin Long will be keen to win their opening match at the EIS. I should qualify this however by pointing out that apart from Liu Song who has endured a nightmare season, all are well-placed on the one-year list and would probably keep their spot on the tour via that route anyway. The top 64 would however be preferable as it would mean one less qualifier to negotiate next season. More on that later.
Who are the chasers?
So who are the players most likely to overtake this group and steal a top 64 spot at the last? Joe Delaney is just outside the cut-off mark being ranked 65th and a win over Scott MacKenzie or Wayne Cooper would probably do the job, while Li Hang and Peter Lines are also just a win away from moving up several places ahead of 60th placed Song.
Just further back are Matt Selt, Atthasit Mahitti and Andrew Norman, but they probably need more than one win if they are to move up into the top 64. Again though, each of these are well-positioned on the one-year list so a solitary win might be enough.
Beyond this however it becomes increasingly difficult to see anyone putting a run together, largely because of the near-900 point gap between Mahitthi in 70th and Spick in 71st. For example if Spick were to win his first two matches and earn a last 64 spot with Adrian Gunnell, this would still not be enough to move him above Jin Long into 64th. It would therefore take an extraordinary run like that of Liu Chuang last year by anyone else to really put themselves into contention.
The One-Year List – Who looks good?
However, there is of course another opportunity for those further back to stay on the tour and that is via the one-year list. The top eight players during 2008/9 who have not already finished inside the top 64 will also retain their main tour status.
At present these are:
60 Peter Lines 6250
61 Li Hang 6250
62 Joe Delaney 6132
63 Matthew Selt 5925
64 Atthasit Mahitthi 5850
67 Andrew Norman 5613
69 Matthew Couch 4850
70 Stephen Craigie 4813
But of course with double points on offer and 14 players close enough to move ahead of both Craigie and Couch with one win, this is far from settled. Also if one of those currently ranked in the top 64 were to slip out, such as Jin Long who is well up the one-year list, this could take away Craigie’s place too.
All that said, Lines and Hang at the top of this group do look to be comfortable and I find it hard to see them being overtaken by six or seven below them. To illustrate, even if someone like Craigie were to win his first two matches, he would just fall 37 points short of them and have to reach the next round to stand a chance of moving ahead. Joe Delaney is almost as well placed, but the 118 points that he is behind Hang and Lines makes all the difference as it just means that Couch, Craigie and Bedford can catch him with just a couple of wins. He would still be unlucky to drop out though.
The next group including Selt, Mahitthi and Norman are looking reasonably comfortable, needing probably just the one win to be assured of a top eight spot. An early exit though and they will almost certainly be sweating on other results, Norman in particular.
It is the final two spots that are really up for grabs however, Couch and Craigie being nearly 800 points behind Norman with a large pack of players breathing down their necks. The good news for both however is that both have winnable ties in their opening matches, putting the pressure on those below who hope to overtake them. Couch takes on Michael Georgiou who is yet to win a match this season, while Craigie comes up against Lee Spick, the man he edged out 5-4 in the China Open qualifiers back in January.
Who looks doomed?
While anything is possible, there are a fair few players at the bottom of the rankings and look to be all but out of contention for a place on next season’s tour. On the two-year list I would suggest that anyone much lower than 75th will have to produce something really spectacular if they are to move up into the top 64. Certainly those below about 80th are in need of a miracle, not only qualifying for the Crucible but also winning a match there and it is difficult to see any of them doing that.
As far as the two-year list is concerned, as mentioned above it is far more open because everyone down to Scott MacKenzie in 86th is just one win away from Couch and Craigie who currently occupy top eight spots. I would find it hard to imagine those below making much of an impact however, largely because the players in question are likely to need to win at least two matches to stand any chance, and few have shown any signs of doing so during the rest of the season so far.
Summary
I hope that has helped to flag up a few things and give you an idea of just how close things are further down the rankings. What it should lead to are some very tense matches in Sheffield over the next few days, just imagine being someone like Simon Bedford, into a deciding frame and needing a win to move up the one-year list and in contention for a tour place. It could well happen to any number of players and it will be fascinating to see…